Trade wars are the number one risk to the global economy, warns IMF

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Output slowing in major economies from China to Europe and Mexico

The International Monetary Fund said more work is needed to further reduce global trade imbalances amid increasing tensions, while issuing a fresh warning that such conflicts are weighing on the global economy.

While the U.S. trade war with China has cooled with a recent truce and renewed talks, the world’s second-largest economy has slowed amid President Donald Trump’s tariffs. China’s government said this week that the economy eased to the weakest pace since quarterly data began in 1992, highlighting effects of the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S.

Higher-than-warranted balances are centred in the euro area, driven by Germany and the Netherlands, as well as other advanced economies such as South Korea and Singapore, according to the IMF. It said balances that are lower-than-warranted are still concentrated in the U.S. and U.K., along with some emerging economies such as Argentina and Indonesia.

Stimulus ReadyDavid Lipton, the IMF’s acting managing director, on Tuesday urged central banks and other policy makers to be ready with more stimulus if a global economy that’s already slowed by a trade war deteriorates. “All need to be ready in case there is a significant slowdown to respond much more forcefully,” Lipton said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

 

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Ah, the famous global economy dogma!

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