The new Liberal voter coalition looks a lot like the last one - Macleans.ca

When John Brassard was knocking on doors in Barrie, Ont. in this fall’s election, he could sense that his Conservative party’s platform was a winner. Brassard, the incumbent in Barrie-Innisfil, was confident voters would give him a second term on the strength of a tax cut the Conservatives said would save the average family $850 a year, a public transit tax credit that could save long-distance commuters almost $600 a year, and a children’s fitness tax credit that could save hundreds more.

The stark truth of the 2019 election was that fewer than one in five seats changed hands. The vast majority of Canada voted the same way as four years ago. Only 62 ridings flipped out of 338. The victorious Liberals were still the biggest losers. They shed 21 seats to the Tories and only gained two back; they watched eight of their seats fall to the Bloc Québécois, a Fredericton seat go Green and a Vancouver district elect Jody Wilson-Raybould.

URBAN/RURAL DIVIDE Liberals utterly dominated urban Canada. In 2015, the Liberals won 123 out of 176 ridings with a density of 300 per sq.-km., which our analysis defines as urban. In 2019, they held 107 of those ridings, bleeding 10 to the Tories and four to the Bloc. Conservatives struggled mightily to win in cities, managing only to win the 67th densest riding in the country—Edmonton-Griesbach.

Liberals also dominate ridings with the highest proportion of lone-parent households: they won 35 of 55 ridings in which more than lone parents make up 20 per cent of households, and 79 of 152 ridings where 15-20 per cent of households have just one parent. Conversely, Tories won 64 of 129 ridings where that number is only 10-15 per cent.

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