The final 338Canada projection: The most uncertain federal election in decades - Macleans.ca

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Philippe J. Fournier: The night before the election, there is no certainty in the numbers. We could end up with the first popular vote and seat split in 40 years.

Well, here we are. The day before election day. A flurry of polls have been published in the last 24 hours, and many more will probably come later tonight.

Finally, Maxime Bernier’s PPC never really took off—even with Bernier’s participation at the debates—and ends this 2019 campaign at an average of just below 3 per cent nationally. Quebec The story of this election in Quebec is the surge of the Bloc Québécois shortly after the first French debate. At first, the Bloc ate into Conservative support in the province. Then the Liberals also lost ground. Polls in Quebec show that the Liberals and Bloc remain in a near tie in voting intentions, but the Bloc is first among francophones.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan The Liberals won all 8 Winnipeg seats in 2015, along with Ralph Goodale’s Regina-Wascana riding in Saskatchewan. However, the Liberals will be fighting to win even half that total in the Prairies.Alberta In 2015, the Conservatives won “only” 29 of the Alberta’s 34 federal seats. The Liberals won two seats in both Edmonton and Calgary .

These wide error bars are not a bug of the model—they reflect the high uncertainty that results when one poll shows the Conservatives leading in the province , others show a statistical tie and others have the Liberals in the lead . What we can say about B.C. remains vague: 1) the Conservatives should perform well in most rural areas; 2) The Liberals and NDP will be competitive in many Vancouver ridings, and 3) The Greens will hope to expand their base on Vancouver Island.

 

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Earth to Macleans, this is Manitoba speaking. The Liberals did NOT win all 8 Winnipeg seats in 2015!!! You have forgotten Daniel_Blaikie of the NDP in his 61-vote Elmwood-Transcona win.

You are showing popular vote in that article. Why not their seat prediction?

acoyne Wait - how many Liberal seats does Macleans think there were in Winnipeg?

This is all about Canada's future, and our children's & grandchildren's future. It's all well good for politician's to stand up spout off. But, it doesn't pay the college tuition fees or find students housing or pay the rent or even buy groceries. Vote smarter..

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