The reporting season, set to kick off in mid-July, is expected to show profits from S&P 500 firms dropped for a third straight quarter with a nearly nine per cent decline from a year ago, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.
Getting a firm grip on the trajectory of market volatility matters for options traders facing the conundrum of whether to double down on wagering on equity peace, or to take advantage of cheap pricing to hedge against turmoil. Take volatility-target funds that make asset allocations based on price swings. Thanks in part to the stretch of market calm, they have poured more than US$150 billion into equities in the past six months, according to an estimate by Charlie McElligott, cross-asset strategist at Nomura Securities International Inc. By design, a volatility spike would force them to cut exposure.
Another driver is the resurgence of the once-troubled strategy of shorting vol. The trade is so popular that by one measure, the net amount of selling broke a record in April and did so again in June, according to Morgan Stanley’s team led by Christopher Metli.
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