Spaghetti Sauce Is Under Threat as Water Crisis Slams Tomatoes

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Tomato paste, ketchup prices surge as drought shrinks California crop.

California leads the world in production of processing tomatoes — the variety that gets canned and used in commercial kitchens to make some of the most popular foods. The problem is the worst drought in 1,200 years is forcing farmers to grapple with a water crisis that’s undermining the crop, threatening to further push up prices from salsa to spaghetti sauce.

“It’s real tough to grow a tomato crop right now,” Montna said. “On one side you have the drought impacting costs because you don’t have enough water to grow all your acres, and then you have the farm inflation side of it with fuel and fertilizer costs shooting up.”California restrictions limiting groundwater use and soaring costs for labor, fuel and fertilizer have caused headaches for producers such as Woolf Farming.

“You would think that it was a home run for growers, but in reality the input costs have gone up so much that the potential profit was all gobbled up,” Blankenship said. And it’s only getting worse. Higher temperatures will shrink supply of processing tomatoes in key regions in the next few decades, with the US, Italy and China expected to decline 6% by 2050, according to an academic study published in Nature Food. Increasing heat and water constraints may make it especially tough for California and Italy to maintain current production levels, the June report said.The California crop has been below the recent production peak of 14.

Such pressures are being reflected in Ingomar’s processed products. Tomato paste prices for clients of the company, which sells to some of the largest US food brands, are up as much as 80% from a year ago. With inventories dropping to critically low levels, though, supply isn’t available for everyone.Article content

 

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