Tightening financial conditions and the prospect of an economic recession are going to be a toxic brew for European shares going into 2023 with a key regional benchmark seen sliding towards October lows, a Reuters poll has found.
“The impact of aggressive rate hikes will be felt on the real economy and hence earnings growths in the next few quarters. Based on our economists, we expect a shallow recession in Europe which leads to forecast an earnings decline of 12%” next year, said Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau in London. “Things could change, for example, if the inflation outlook were to start improving significantly or if at least a ceasefire is achieved in Ukraine.”
“We expect earnings to deteriorate and see the region underperforming on our tactical horizon. The economic slowdown will hit the cyclical euro zone market disproportionately,” he added.
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