Current Governor Tiff Macklem should have spent more time looking over his shoulder. In the first year of the COVID epidemic, as measured by “M3,” increased at an average annual rate of 13.4 per cent, almost double the rate during the preceding nine years. Even so, most academic economists and advisers to central bankers have blamed the current inflation — 8.
A second way the money supply can increase results from actions of the Bank of Canada. During COVID, the bank bought government bonds held by investment institutions. It paid for them by creating new deposits for the sellers. This added directly to the money supply and increased the central bank’s assets and liabilities by the same amount.
The two lines in the nearby graph show six-month moving averages of monthly observations of year-over-year growth in inflation and money supply, with the twist that while the inflation numbers are current the money supply data is from two years earlier, which makes it possible to judge how much it may influence subsequent inflation.
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