Oil traders sanguine about risks from Israel-Iran conflict

Petroleum prices have fallen following Iran’s missile and drone assault on Israel, confounding expectations that the escalation of the shadow war would cause them to rise.

Traders have concluded Iran will not risk any disruption of its exports; the United States will not risk significantly higher oil prices in an election year; and the United States will restrain the next round of responses by Israel. The deficit had increased from 51 million barrels in December 2023 but was only very slightly wider than a year ago when it stood at 74 million barrels .

Production outside OPEC⁺ is expected to grow strongly this year, especially in the United States, Canada, Guyana and Brazil, sufficient to cover the increase in consumption in 2024. The backwardation was in the 91st percentile, implying traders expected inventories to deplete further in the near term, but with supplies expected to remain comfortable in the longer term.

U.S. commercial crude inventories were almost exactly in line with the prior 10-year seasonal average on April 12, and there has been very little net change over the last three months.

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