Next EU chief will need cash more than trade wars

BRUSSELS, Oct 10 - Ursula von der Leyen’s unofficial bid to keep the European Commission’s top job started off with the flash of an anti-subsidy probe and a bang of exhortations to bring Ukraine, Moldova and Western Balkan countries into the fold. What she sidestepped was how to find more cash and convince member states to pay up. Without credible plans to raise more money, the European Union won’t be able to build a strong future.

Whoever leads the Commission once von der Leyen’s current term ends in mid-2024 will thus face budget woes that, if not addressed, risk putting the entire EU project in jeopardy. Yet budget concerns will be hard to discuss honestly during the byzantine process to pick a head for the powerful EU executive.

Von der Leyen, or her successor, will have to figure out how to pay for enlargement. Ukraine became an official EU candidate alongside Moldova and Bosnia and Herzegovina, joining Montenegro, Serbia, Albania and North Macedonia in the EU’s accession purgatory. Kosovo is waiting in the wings. Turkey and Georgia are also in the accession queue, albeit with lesser prospects.

During her first term, von der Leyen succeeded in connecting the EU with bond investors via the 800 billion euro NextGenerationEU borrowing programme. A former physician and German defence minister, her strategy is generally to stake out a broad policy position while leaving plenty of wiggle room to make concessions to member states. A second term will require even more finesse to convince EU member states to raise money not just from markets, but from themselves.

Enlargement is the biggest carrot in the EU’s neighborhood policy pantry, even if timelines are vague and prone to decades of delay. In addition to considering financial implications, the EU will want to take a tough stand with prospective new entrants on the rule of law, both domestically and with regard to rules set out from Brussels to avoid more standoffs like current battles with right-wing governments in Hungary and Poland.

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