New Zealand Now Sees Cash Rate Cuts Starting Later in 2025

-- New Zealand ’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged for a seventh straight meeting and signaled policy will need to stay tight for longer to stamp out stubborn inflation.‘It Felt Like We Had Crashed’: Singapore Air Passenger Describes Turbulence TerrorThe Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee held the Official Cash Rate at 5.5% on Wednesday in Wellington, as anticipated. The bank’s new forecasts show reductions starting in the third quarter of 2025 instead of the second.

Money markets trimmed expectations of rate cuts this year to price 34 basis points of easing by year-end, according to swaps data compiled by Bloomberg. Prior to the meeting, traders had priced 45 basis points of rate cuts.The RBNZ’s updated forecasts show the average OCR peaking at 5.65% this year compared to 5.60% in its previous projections in February. That implies a 60% risk of a hike. The projections show the average OCR falling to 5.4% in the third quarter next year.

While weaker capacity pressures and rising unemployment in New Zealand are reducing inflation, the decline is being tempered by price increases in sectors of the economy that are less sensitive to interest rates, the RBNZ said. These include higher rents, insurance costs and local government rates. Soft economic data “suggests progress on getting domestic inflation down is about to accelerate meaningfully,” said Sharon Zollner, chief New Zealand economist at ANZ Bank in Auckland. “However, the RBNZ is going to believe that when it sees it.”SYDNEY -Asian shares edged higher on Wednesday as anxious investors dared to hope AI-diva Nvidia could meet sky-high expectations, while also keeping a wary eye on the outlook for U.S. and UK interest rates.

Source: Loan Digest (loandigest.net)

New Zealand Basis Points “The Committee RBNZ The Committee Policy Committee Inflation Surprises Interest Rates

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