Rating agency Moody’s cut its global sovereign outlook for 2020 to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ on Monday, saying disruptive and unpredictable world politics would slow growth and increase the risk of economic or financial shocks.
Unpredictable politics and trade wars such as that between the United States and China would weaken open and commodity-exporting economies.The increasingly antagonistic environment was also likely to damage global and national institutions, which together with lower growth, raises the probability of crises but reduces the capacity to deal with them.
“There are few silver linings, and a rising risk of more negative outcomes,” it added. “Unpredictable politics create an unpredictable economic and financial environment.” The first-order effect of these strains – for example, the impact of tariff increases on trade volumes - is not always severe, but the knock-on impact on investment and capital flows is likely to damage both near- and medium-term growth prospects across all regions.
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