3:35 PM Feb 1, 2023
Pending a recession, REBGV is projecting 28,500 home sales in 2023 — a 2.6% decrease compared to 2022. It’s also much lower than the 2020 and 2021 pandemic years, but is an increase compared to the pre-pandemic years of 2018 and 2019. REBGV also notes that historical data shows home sales in Metro Vancouver tend to slow down as mortgage rates rise rapidly, and can take close to two years to fully recover. Late in January, the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate to 4.5%, butthat they expect to “hold the policy rate at its current level” while assessing the impact of its eight consecutive interest rate increases.
Home prices, however, have historically been less affected by increased mortgage rates, REBGV says, which is why they are projecting the composite residential average price to hit $1,2000,000 — a 1.4% increase from where the average price ended in 2022, at $1,182,935.
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