Liberals expecting to win Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection despite poor polling for Trudeau

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The reason why a win matters now is less about numbers in a minority Parliament, and more because of what a loss would say about Liberal prospects in every other riding in Canada

Liberals have held the riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s for three decades, but heading into Monday’s federal by-election, people in the party say that while they expect to win, it will be a closer race than it should be.having a pronounced impact on the riding, the race has turned from a typical Liberal cakewalk to an all-hands-on-deck push to the finish.

Early in the race, Liberal nerves were frayed as internal data showed the Conservatives were so close that three Liberals said the result was a toss up. But with a steady stream of federal cabinet ministers, MPs and Parliament Hill staffers descending on the usually safe seat to door-knock and work the phones, Liberals are entering the final stretch confident in a win on Monday.

While he and most others are banking on a win, the high stakes were felt on Parliament Hill this month. Two Liberal staffers say the race is viewed as a test of, who has been adamant that he will stay on as leader despite the bad polling and insufficient fundraising. However, that sentiment was played down by others, although they acknowledged it’s a must-win riding.

In the upscale Forest Hill neighbourhood, signs for Conservative Don Stewart littered the lawns of large, stately homes. But there were few signs of the election campaign on the major streets nearby and the Liberals have the upper hand in the sign game in other neighbourhoods.

Race Party Seat Area People Liberals Liberal Globe St. Paul 'S Forest Hill Tories

 

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