Last time Saudi Arabia asked its oil minister to do the impossible was 1986

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And this time the kingdom needs $85 oil to balance its budget

A Saudi ruler replaces his oil minister for failing to deliver high enough prices as demand growth weakens and non-OPEC supply soars. I thought I’d woken up in 1986.

The current OPEC+ output cuts, of which Al-Falih was a key architect, were meant to last six months. They have now been extended to run into a fourth year and will almost certainly need to be prolonged again, if not deepened. Saudi Arabia is bearing the brunt of those cuts and has said it will reduce exports even further this month.

Oil demand growth is weakening, while U.S. production from the country’s vast shale deposits shows little sign of running out of steam. U.S. output hit a record 12.5 million barrels a day in weekly data last month, and new export pipelines and terminals expected in the coming months have the U.S. Department of Energy forecasting an output level of more than 13.5 million barrels a day by the end of next year.

 

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