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“Like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war,” former CIA officer Robert Carlin and nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker wrote in early 2024 on the website 38 North, which focuses on North Korea. They didn’t forecast how soon that could take place. Kim Jong Un is unlikely to risk a similar invasion. But he has shown an appetite for smaller provocations that could spin out of control — a trait shared by his father, Kim Jong Il.One flashpoint is the Yellow Sea border islands that are part of South Korea but located in waters claimed by Pyongyang.
In a display typical of his more aggressive stance, Kim watched his forces in March fire off the weapons that could be used in an attack on the South Korean capital. Just a one-minute artillery and rocket barrage against Seoul could result in nearly 15,000 casualties, according to a 2020 analysis by Rand. A one-hour barrage would see that number rise to more than 100,000.
North Korea’s few Soviet-era fighters and its squadrons of single-propeller An-2 biplanes — developed in the 1950s and with a top speed of about 160 miles per hour — would be easy pickings for South Korea’s surface-to-air missiles and modern F-35A jets, which can travel at speeds exceeding 1,200 mph.
“Inadequate availability of fuel and transportation assets, poor maintenance of ground lines of communication, and insufficient training all constrain North Korea’s ability to sustain large-scale conventional offensive operations,” the US Defense Intelligence Agency said in a recent report.Another possibility is a “bloody nose” strike against North Korea by the US and South Korea, an option discussed during the Trump administration.
“Our analysis right now is, effectively, that he will engage in increasingly provocative behavior but not — is not interested — in escalating this into a full-on war and that there is a kind of a limit on this,” US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told Congress in March.If a broader North Korean attack looked likely, South Korea would aim to deploy new bunker-buster missiles and squadrons of fighter jets based south of Seoul.
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