On Wednesday, the central bank surprised some by effectively closing the door on an interest-rate cut, a move the bond markets didn’t see coming. And the following day, Carolyn Wilkins, the senior deputy governor, told an audience in Calgary that Alberta’s struggle to adjust to lower oil prices wasn’t reflective of the broader national economy. “This has led to painful adjustments for many of you here and has weighed on Canada’s bottom line,” she said.
That’s a poor result. It matched the fourth-quarter growth rate, confirming the worst six-month stretch for the economy since 2015. But it’s the past. What matters for the central bank is what the report says about the future. And beyond the headline, the news was mostly positive, suggesting that economic growth is set to rebound.Household spending jumped 0.9 per cent, the strongest since 2017 and a little better than the quarterly average, according to data that date to 1961.
“Consumer spending bounced back strongly after a poor performance in the second half of 2018,” Matthew Stewart, director of economics at the Conference Board of Canada, said in an email. He called the increase “substantial” and added that “households may not be having as much difficulty with their substantial debt burden and rising interest rates as many feared.”
“The composition of growth was actually stronger than we had anticipated, with significant support from consumption and business investment,” Veronica Clark, an economist at Citibank, said in a note to her clients. “This reinforces our view that the early-year slowdown will be temporary.”
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