Global central banks will begin cutting interest rates in the second half of the year as inflation declines, according to a new outlook from the International Monetary Fund .
But the US is still more of a wildcard as investors continue to push back their bets on when cuts could begin, due to hotter-than-expected inflation data and a surprisingly resilient economy.Among advanced economies, the US has experienced the strongest rebound, helped by rising productivity growth. Growth in the euro area is projected to recover from its low rate of an estimated 0.4% last year, which reflected relatively high exposure to the war in Ukraine, to 0.8% this year and 1.5% in 2025.
The participation of people in the workforce is also expected to drop as populations age and business investment weakens. Advanced economies stand to benefit from AI sooner than emerging markets and developing economies, according to the IMF, given greater emphasis on cognitive-intensive roles in the types of jobs.
Productivity Growth Energy Prices Global Recession Inflation Declines Central Banks European Central Bank International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva Economic Growth Federal Reserve Advanced Economies
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