Western sanctions on Russian oil following its invasion of Ukraine in February have led to lower Russian crude production and refinery output and severely disrupted oil flows around the world, pushing oil prices higher.The consultancy expects crude prices to average around US$100 per barrel next year compared with US$110 this year. Benchmark Brent crude prices are currently near US$120 a barrel.
Next year, average global refining margins are expected to top their five-year average range, albeit “nowhere near as punchy as 2022,” Gelder said.No relief in sight from high gas prices for commuters The refining sector is operating at maximum where possible, and prioritizing diesel in particular, but supply remains insufficient to meet demand as economies continue to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, Gelder said.
The strain is particularly felt in the diesel and gasoil market which remains undersupplied by around 800,000 bpd, according to WoodMac figures.The fuel price spike has squeezed household budgets as the cost of travel skyrockets in many parts of the world. WoodMac expects around 2.5 million bpd of new refining capacity to be brought online over the next three quarters, including the new 400,000 bpd Jizan refinery in Saudi Arabia, Dangote’s 650,000 bpd oil refinery in Nigeria, the 615,000 bpd al-Zour refinery in Kuwait, and a number of sites in China.
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