NEW DELHI - Global petrol demand growth could halve in 2024, squeezing second-half refinery margins, analysts said, driven by a shift to electric cars in China and the United States and a return to normal consumption after last year's bounce following COVID-19.
Gasoline consumption by the world's largest crude importer is set to grow by about 1.3%, or about 2 million tons, to 165.1 million metric tons this year, forecasts by a research arm of China National Petroleum Corp show. By comparison, booming car sales, along with high economic growth and low EV penetration, are driving gasoline demand in India and Indonesia.
Stagnant European petrol demand and rising competition from Nigeria's new Dangote refinery, the largest in Africa and Europe that could add 280,000-300,000 bpd of gasoline to global balances, will put European refining margins under pressure, Woodmac said.
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