-- President Emmanuel Macron ’s decision three weeks ago to call snap elections overturned any semblance of political stability in France and opened the door to the possibility of the first far-right government in the modern republic.Not only did his call to dissolve the National Assembly shock both the public and markets — sending some risk indicators to levels last seen during the euro-area crisis — it also took Macron’s own cabinet by surprise.
It could put National Rally into a position where it would have to govern for the first time, creating a tangible track record ahead of the 2027 presidential election, when Macron won’t be able to run due to term limits.As of Friday — the last day polling companies are allowed to publish projections ahead of the vote — National Rally and its allies had a strong lead, on course to get 36.2% of the vote, according to Bloomberg’s poll of polls.
In 2022, there were only eight triangulaires. This time, the number could swell to between 160 and 200, according to a poll of 2,005 adults by Odoxa June 26-27.Any group that is able to get an absolute majority of 289 or more seats will control the lower-house of parliament. It can easily pass laws and a government backed by that group would be safe from the threat of no-confidence votes.
A hung parliament would make it difficult to legislate since the government would need to find extra votes outside of its party for every bill. If the government were to use a constitutional provision that allows it to bypass a vote, it would open itself up to a no-confidence vote and could be overturned if rival parties came together.
Macron’s party stands for continuity, with more pro-business tax cuts and reforms, along with a commitment to curb spending. Responding to concerns of voters, his group has added pledges to improve the incomes of low earners by tweaking taxation, and measures to help home-buyers. Democratic strategist David Axelrod told GOP strategists during a postdebate panel discussion that they and former President Trump would face “trouble” if President Biden is replaced at the top of the Democratic ticket. “If, for whatever reason, there’s a change at the top of the ticket, you guys are in trouble with Donald Trump.
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