Four UFAs NHL teams should be careful to not overpay

General Managers will be free to offer contracts to UFAs on Wednesday and anytime there are bidding wars, there are overpays. With a flat salary cap, avoiding contracts with lots of term and money for players likely to underperform them is critical. This is difficult to do in unrestricted free agency when managers need to walk the tightrope of doing what they can to improve their team without overpaying for assets.

Some players routinely outscore their expected goals total, which is based on league average goal probability on the type of shots the player took. No player outperformed his expected goal total more than Auston Matthews, who led the NHL in goals last season. However, this is not a sign that Matthews is due to regress as he consistently outperforms his expected goal total each year. He is an elite scorer whose shot is well above average.

This past season, the Avalanche finished third in goals against and first in expected goals against. No team allowed fewer scoring chances, slot shots, inner slot shots, or rush chances than Colorado. No goalie faced an easier workload, in terms of expected goals against, than Grubauer. In his career, Saad’s shooting percentage has hovered around 11 per cent, but those percentages jumped to 15 per cent in 2019-20 and 22.1 per cent in 2021. Saad scored 15 goals this past season despite an expected goals total of 10.6. Had Saad finished the season more in line with his expected goal total, he would have had a shooting percentage of around 15 per cent -- higher than average for him, but in line with his prior season where he did score in line with his expected goals total.

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