Canada has joined the U.S. in the inverted yield curve club, signalling a growing risk of recession that may keep Stephen Poloz on hold for his final 14 months as head of Canada’s central bank.
“A rate cut would require signs that the economy is declining,” said Craig Alexander, chief economist at Deloitte Canada, in a television interview with BNN Bloomberg Friday. Still “the inverted yield curve is troubling. Inverted curves have often been accompanied by recession.” Canadian bond investors have been rewarded by the plunging yields, with an aggregate index of Canadian debt returning 4.1 per cent this year, compared with a 2.6 per cent gain for a comparable U.S. gauge, according to Bloomberg Barclays indexes.
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