Fears about skyrocketing dairy prices may be misplaced, economists say

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Scholars say the relationship between farm prices and supermarket prices is messy and a big bump on one end doesn't always result in an equally big bump on the other

He was referring to the Canadian Dairy Commission’s announcement late last week that called for a historic 8.4 per cent increase in the “farm-gate” price of milk, which amounts to six cents per litre. Under supply management rules, the commission can establish the price that farmers get for their raw goods, but not the price at retail.

But some economists and scholars argue it won’t be as painful as many seem to fear. They say the relationship between farm prices and supermarket prices is messy, to say the least, and a big bump on one end doesn’t always result in an equally big bump on the other. Chantal Paul, director of corporate services at the Canadian Dairy Commission, acknowledged its decision would lead to increases for consumers “for sure,” but said the “magnitude of this increase is really going to depend on what’s going to happen down the supply chain.”

“It all depends on the weight of milk in the overall retail product. Then you add on labour, transportation, packaging, all that stuff,” Gervais said. “I think it’s a little bit misleading to think that eight per cent at the farm level is going to trigger some significant increases in per-cent terms at the retail level.”

 

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