The reason for this tacit support goes beyond the two countries’ shared goal of undermining the western order, or China’s desire to have Russia be economically beholden to it due to western sanctions. China’s relatively muted response on the Ukrainian invasion is also about something far more specific: for years, Beijing has also been eyeing a territory it does not control, but sees as a breakaway province — Taiwan.
China and Taiwan share a language and a culture, even if they have diverged somewhat in modern times. China under President Xi Jinping is an autocracy bent on undermining the liberal international order, while Taiwan is a democracy that is supported by the West. China has also threatened war to reabsorb Taiwan, which foreign policy hawks say looms closer by the day.Article content
There’s a widely used quote sometimes attributed to Otto von Bismarck: “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others.” It’s a truth that manifests everywhere, even in the television show “Squid Game,” when characters have to cross an unpredictable glass bridge, and those who go last hold the advantage. China will learn from Russia’s victories and missteps, and will apply those lessons to Taiwan.
To China, those are indications of far it can go in Taiwan, how much pain it can expect and what sort of preparation it needs to take in order to mitigate any potential repercussions. The results of Putin’s game in Europe will be a barometer for Xi to see how worthwhile any use of force against Taiwan would be.
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