Disappointing GDP growth offsets worries central bank, governments are overdoing it

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Kevin Carmichael: Rebound overly reliant on housing, and few will be comfortable about recovery until other growth engines kick in

GDP, as measured by industry output, likely decreased by 0.8 per cent in April, which would be the first monthly decline in a year.

Housing investment continued to power the economy during the first quarter, accounting for 8.6 per cent of GDP, matching the previous record set in the third quarter of 1987. Spending on real estate surged 9.4 per cent from the fourth quarter, an astonishing increase given it occurred over the wintry months when housing activity typically slows.

Benoit Durocher, an economist at Desjardins Group, observed that excluding real estate, the economy grew at an annual rate of only 2.1 per cent in the first quarter. “There is every reason to believe that the negative effects of the third wave will take a toll on the Canadian economy,” he said in a note. “It is difficult to do otherwise as the most populous province, Ontario, is in the midst of the difficulties.

Investment in non-residential property, machinery and equipment, and intellectual property was 9.3 per cent of GDP in the first quarter, the smallest level since the second quarter of 1996. The relative importance of business investment and residential investment has rarely been this close; the last time the gap between their respective shares of GDP was this narrow was in early 1987.

 

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Poland today growth over 11%, unemployment 3,1% Just saying.

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