COVID transmission relies on two things. Hint: it's not weather

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Temperature is not driving the spread of the deadly virus. — via healthing_ca

For the purposes of their analysis, researchers defined weather as “equivalent air temperature” — a combination of temperature and humidity that gave them a single value to work with. They then tracked this value alongside the spread of the virus across counties, states and countries, using cellphone data in the U.S. to allow them to incorporate travel data.

Weather was found to have almost no influence across every scale examined and its relative importance was deemed to be less than three per cent in the counties they studied. While there was no indication weather impacted the spread of COVID-19, the data clearly showed the role human behaviour has played. Taking trips and spending time away from home were the two biggest contributing factors in the advance of the virus.

“We shouldn’t think of the problem as something driven by weather and climate,” said Sajad Jamshidi, another co-author of the study. “We should take personal precautions, be aware of the factors in urban exposure.” The research shows the importance of examining viruses at the human scale, or at ground level where humans live their lives, Niyogi said. “COVID, it is claimed, could change everything,” he said. “We have been looking at weather and climate outlooks as a system that we scale down, down, down and then seeing how it might affect humans. Now, we are flipping the case and upscaling, starting at human exposure scale and then going outwards.

“This is a new paradigm we will need for studying virus exposure and human environmental modeling systems involving new sensing and AI-like techniques.”

 

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