Comparing Toronto house prices to the early 1990s crash

That is not hyperbole. Historical numbers from the Canadian Real Estate Association show the average resale price gradually fell from $254,197 in 1989 to a low of $195,311 in 1995, a 23.2 per cent drop that felt shattering if you were a homeowner in the city.

As of October, Toronto housing was down 18.3 per cent from its February 2022 price peak. If not a crash, this decline to $1,089,428 from $1,334,544 is a serious decline. So why isn’t there more angst about TorontoOne explanation relates to the way data is measured. We tend to focus on year-over-year comparisons because they’re convenient and avoid seasonal influences on data. Compared to October 2021, the average resale price in Toronto was down just 5.7 per cent.

Another explanation is that there isn’t much panic selling in Toronto. In fact, the number of transactions was down almost 50 per cent from the same month in 2021, and the number of new properties being listed for sale was at a 12-year low. In a crashing market, people feel compelled to sell ahead of further price declines. Today’s market in Toronto suggests sellers are taking a break in anticipation that the market will firm up before too long.

There are a bunch of variables that will help set the trend for Toronto real estate prices – the outlook for interest rates, immigration levels, the success of initiatives to promote residential real estate construction and the potential for aBack in the early 1990s, there was a recession and an unemployment rate close to double the current level.

Prices this year have come down a lot, but it doesn’t feel like an epic slump yet. Buyers hoping for an entrée into a still-expensive market will have to wait.

Source: Real Estate Daily Report (realestatedailyreport.net)

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