A key measure of how well households can handle their debt will hit its worst level on record, CMHC predicts. That’s because unpaid bills are piling up even as households are seeing lower incomes.
“Almost everything we’ve done in response to the crisis involves borrowing,” Siddall said. “Just as governments are taking on more debt … mortgage deferrals adding to household debt. CMHC sees house prices in Canada falling between 9 per cent and 18 per cent over the next 12 months. Siddall warned that first-time homebuyers who are early into their mortgages could find themselves underwater ― meaning their mortgage could be larger than the market value of their house.
He noted that, as the underwriter of a majority of insured mortgages in Canada, CMHC will be on the hook for paying off banks’ bad mortgages ― which he estimates could cost some $9 billion in this crisis. Siddall said the CMHC is looking at pulling back on its underwriting of home lending ― a move that could potentially reduce Canadians’ access to mortgages.
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