Breaking down the cases for the four main Hart Trophy candidates in 2023-24

For the first time in what feels like forever, the race for the Hart Trophy seems to be going down to the wire. Okay, maybe it has happened recently, but the battle between Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews in 2022 is much different than what we’re seeing this season.

Matthews’ Hart Trophy case is mostly dependent on one thing: scoring 70 goals. Currently at 63 with seven games left in the season, his season pace over 81 games puts him at 69 . While seven goals in seven games is certainly not out of the question for Matthews, especially when he’s scored 51 in a 50-game span before, it’s also not going to be a breeze for him either.

The problem for Matthews is that if he doesn’t score 70 goals, his campaign for his second Hart doesn’t pop as much. He’s not in the running for the Art Ross at this point, and that’s a huge detriment to his case. When he’s more than 25 points behind the rest of the top candidates, a historic milestone is his only chance.

But in comparison to Matthews’ 70 goal pursuit, assists are a bit easier to get, especially since secondary assists have been proven to be a bit more random in terms of who gets them. Even for McDavid, the percentage of his assists which are secondary varies from 24% to 50% in his career. 62.89% of McDavid’s assists this season are primary, which ranks 10th among the 14 100-assist seasons if you include his 2023-24 season.

Between that and the fact that MacKinnon has been more essential to the Colorado Avalanche when they lacked depth earlier in the season, that may sway voters towards him. And much like in 2016 when voters just decided that Drew Doughty was going to win a Norris Trophy because he was due, they may feel inclined to do the same with MacKinnon this year .

Colorado Avalanche Connor Mcdavid Daily Faceoff Edmonton Oilers Hart Trophy Hockey Nathan Mackinnon NHL Nikita Kucherov

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