Blue Jays' Merryweather in uncharted waters with unique pitch velocity gap - Sportsnet.ca

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The 16.2 m.p.h. gap between Julian Merryweather’s fastball and his changeup is virtually unheard of. It could make his changeup nearly unhittable, especially if he continues to use a fastball-heavy approach with the BlueJays. (via NickAshbourne)

We’re in such uncharted waters with this pitch — with a lack of both precedent and sample size — that it’s tough to make any confident predictions about its effectiveness. It’s possible that a velocity gap this large is going to be enough that hitters won’t confuse it for the fastball enough for it to shine. It’s equally possible that it will be absolutely devastating.

Another indicator that a changeup is effective is that it induces pulled foul balls. If a hitter is yanking the ball foul, it means he’s in front of the pitch. If a changeup is creating that effect, it’s a good sign that hitters are thinking it’s a fastball and ending up fooled. Merryweather’s changeup has only been put in play three times, which have resulted in a chopper to the mound, a ground out to second base and a flyball to left field. Even the flyball was an 82.0 m.p.h. no-hoper with an Expected Batting Average of .040. J.D. Martinez was clearly out in front of the pitch, making it impossible for him to get any power behind his swing, despite the fact it was right down the pipe.

 

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