pitching staff has been dominant to start the 2023 season, with their league leading 2.67 ERA nearly a full run better than the next best team . Last night they got a further boost when the 23rd overall pick of last year’s draft was added mix. And Brandon Barriera had quite the professional debut in Fort Myers.
Barriera added swinging strikeouts in the second and third, and racking up the final two looking in the fourth at both the breaking ball and a 95 MPH fastball. For the most part, it was just the fastball and slider, with the pitch tracking system recording just four changeups of 49 pitches . Hitters took 20 hacks, coming up empty 8 times for a 40% whiff rate.
This is just one start of course, and there’s a long way to go. But the loudness of it has some inferential meaning. Updating the probabilistic expectation in light, I feel comfortable saying at least 5% of the bottom distribution has been attenuated. It doesn’t necessarily move the dial much at this point because it’s one start so you’re redistributing it mostly to lower level outcomes rather than increasing the probability of an impact MLB outcomes.
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