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“April gold posted a bearish breakout of its previous short-term sideways trend this week, extending its intermediate-term downtrend to a low of $1,996.40 ,” said Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com. “At the same time, the long-term uptrend of the US dollar index is gaining momentum. The next downside target for April gold is $1,970.50.”
Leibovit pointed out that the U.S. still faces significant economic and political risks at home. “Will the U.S. default on its debt? Is the banking crisis just on hold due to the upcoming Presidential election? The overall stock market has a 'crash' risk between now and mid-year which has to be factored in,” he said. “Next week gold looks higher.”
“The dollar's backed off here, so the metal's got to jump, but this might be one last push per the seasonals on the metals,” he said. “They usually die around Valentine's Day, you're in the Presidents Day weekend and then it backs off. We've had some technical damage done there. Silver's carving out a nice little bottom here, $23.20 on the low.”
“But underneath, you’ve got geopolitical , you have shipping routes shut down,” he warned. “What are they going to do about Russia? Is this war going to expand? Is it going to get nastier? Hezbollah's coming out and saying they're not going to stop attacking Israel. So you're going into a long weekend and saying ‘okay, if the market doesn't break on bearish news, which is positive dollar, it's inherently bullish,’ and that's pretty much the reaction.
“If this thing really gets hammered… we closed last year at $2,071. They'll punch this sucker 10% down, a $200 break in the market from that level.” Meanwhile, 221 votes were cast in Kitco’s online polls, with a plurality of Main Street still maintaining a bullish attitude. 94 retail investors, representing 42%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 72, or 33%, predicted it would be lower, while 55 respondents, or 25%, were neutral on the near-term prospects for the precious metal.
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