Analysis-BHP's proposed bid for Anglo American is a big bet on copper

BEIJING/HANOI - BHP Group's proposed $39 billion buyout of Anglo American is a big bet on copper that could spark a scramble for mining assets as a bullish demand outlook and tight supply for a mineral crucial to the energy transition sends prices to multi-year highs.

Global refined copper consumption grew 6.7% in 2023 to 27.63 million metric tons, World Bureau of Metal Statistics data showed. CRU predicts a shortage of 194,000 tons for global copper concentrate and a shortage of 149,000 tons for refined copper this year, and analysts have said they expect the concentrate deficit to widen over the next three years.Goldman Sachs is even more bullish, with the investment bank's analysts forecasting a shortage of 428,000 tons of refined copper in 2024 in a note on Thursday that also predicted prices would hit $12,000 per ton over the coming year.

"BHP has talked about getting more copper for a long time," said Hayden Bairstow, head of research at Australian broker Argonaut. "Anglo's got plans to go to a million tonnes per year in the next 10 years." China Copper, owned by state-run Aluminum Corp of China , said in March it was looking for tie-ups globally to acquire assets.

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BHP Group Mining Companies Refined Copper Copper Peter Arkell

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