The consensus regarding financial markets and the economy seems to have evolved into a more benign, if not positive, outlook. Whether this optimism proves to be accurate or not, it might be a good idea for investors to reassess their fixed income exposure. I have some ETF recommendations that may work particularly well at this juncture.
For the year-to-date period ended April 30, the FTSE Canadian Bond Index was down 0.91 per cent. Bond yields eased toward the end of 2023 but started rising again in the first few months of this year. Corporate bond performance has been outstanding, and those who championed them can take a deserved victory lap. Corporate spreads have narrowed to near all-time lows. The ICE B of A Single A U.S. Corporate Index Option-Adjusted spread is only 0.75 of a percentage point. Similar corporate spread measures are also near their lows.
A long corporate bond yield may have a spread of more than 1.5 percentage points over a similar term Canada, or one percentage point over a provincial bond. If spreads are constant, the investor will earn the additional spread as income. However, if history repeats itself, as it has always done in the past, then the spread between long corporates and governments could widen by more than two percentage points.
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