would be heavy favourites to win the most seats had a provincial election been held this week. The model currently shows the NDP at a stunning 60 seats in the province , well above the 44-seat threshold for a majority at the Alberta Legislative Assembly:would be nearly swept out of urban Alberta and could potentially even lose a fraction of its rural base.
The UCP’s fall from grace is such that the seat distributions—even considering the projection’s high uncertainty—do not even overlap in the 95 per cent confidence intervals:, seat projections that far out of an election campaign have no predictive value, and merely offer a general depiction of the current political landscape. Unless the UCP government unexpectedly falls before the end of its current term , Albertans will only go the polls in the spring of 2023, roughly 18 months from now.
However, we did mention this very same idiom last spring when Léger, Mainstreet, Angus Reid, Janet Brown Opinion Research, and Viewpoint Alberta all measured the NDP leading the UCP by significant margins. No one seriously disputes that several events and turns could happen before then, but still many months have gone by and the UCP has not yet been able to climb out of this hole.
The equalization referendum may have given Jason Kenney an opportunity to return to a recipe that has served the Alberta premier well in the past: Fighting against Justin Trudeau’s federal Liberals. However, with little appetite from coast to coast for a re-opening of constitutional negotiations , it is increasingly unlikely that the referendum will give Kenney the leverage he expected to gain from it.
GlobalObserver And that would not make much difference in the daily life of most people. Albertans, like the rest of Canada and the World, need ASAP direct democracy, at least as good as the Swiss have. Representative democracy is fake democracy.
Theyneed to be eradicated
He already has
Alberta needs an election for it’s survival
At least they held the calgarystampede…..
The UCP could prob win with just the rural base though right? And the entire south of Calgary which always votes against its best interests or common sense
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