Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts

OPINION: Do not count on reducing your equity exposure to sidestep a bear market. Devise and follow a strategy you can live with through it.

It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.

This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended. In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?I think these statistics make a compelling case.

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