Win big here, and the Republican has a real shot at victory.
Wisconsin has been the closest Midwestern state in each of the last two presidential elections. Trump will likely need to “WOW” the state’s voters to win it back.
Trump could try to win the state by increasing his already high margins in these places, perhaps by increasing turnout. Perhaps that would work, but that tactic failed in 2020 to offset the even larger decline in his vote in the WOW counties. That leaves Trump with two options: increase his vote share with ethnic minorities or reverse somewhat his losses over the years with educated whites.There’s some evidence that he is hiking his support among non-whites compared with 2020. The recent American Greatness/TIPP poll had Harris leading. Non-whites were about 13% of the 2020 electorate, so losing them by 15 points less would turn Biden’s 0.6 percent win into a 1.3-point loss for Harris – assuming everything else stays the same.
This means Trump needs to do more than just rally the base and talk more to minorities. He needs to figure out how to stop college-educated whites from continuing their leftward drift, and the ex-prez has a host of issues he can concentrate on to do just that.showed that the economy was the most important issue for college-educated voters, and Trump trailed Harris by only 6 points among them when asked about the handling of that issue.
Politics 2024 Presidential Election Barack Obama Colleges And Universities Donald Trump Milwaukee Minnesota New York Times Republican National Convention Richard Nixon Swing States 2024 Wisconsin
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