What if we’re all getting it wrong on central banks again? What might cause interest rates to stay higher than just about everyone is now expecting? James Smith is channelling Taylor Swift this week.
Brace yourself; we knew he was trouble When the facts change, I’ll shake it off Keynes supposedly once said, “When the facts change, I mumble something about Taylor Swift, blame the weather, list a load of temporary factors I couldn’t have possibly foreseen, then I change my mind”. It was something like that, anyway. My economic history is a bit hazy these days… And speaking of Taylor, imagine my delight when I discover she’s back performing in London for a second time this weekend.
After the market volatility of ten days ago, financial markets are currently favouring the Fed delivering a 25bp interest rate cut on September 18 following better retail sales numbers and signs of resilience in jobless claims. Nonetheless, there are still important events and data releases that mean a 50bp cut can’t be excluded as a possibility.
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