What the jobs report really says about the U.S. economy: (via M_C_Klein)
The June payrolls report is out, and while it was stronger than expected it doesn’t do much to change the overall trajectory of job and economic growth in the U.S.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite were all about 0.8% lower in Friday morning trading, as investors saw the strong jobs growth as reducing the likelihood that the Fed will lower interest rates this month. The current rate of job growth is significantly slower than the robust rate of job growth in the first six months of 2018, when the economy added 1.4 million jobs on a seasonally-adjusted basis, or about 235,000 a month. If current growth rates persist, about 2.1 million more Americans will have jobs at the end of 2019 than at the end of 2018 and the employment-growth rate would be about 1.4%. By comparison, the number of Americans with jobs rose by 2.
A better approach, suggested by the economists David Bell and David Blanchflower, is to look at the proportion of people with jobs who are working “part-time for economic reasons.” They have found that is a more accurate measure of workers’ ability to secure wage increases than the conventional unemployment rate.
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