Market Overview Analysis by Michael Kramer covering: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/JPY. Read Michael Kramer's latest article on Investing.com
Yesterday was a rough day for risk assets all around. We are currently witnessing the unwinding of the global carry trade in theJapan was the only player in the developed world with sub-1% rates for the longest time. That game is over, and now worries are mounting that the BOJ may choose to raise rates next week. The problem is that theand 10-year JGBs are collapsing. Except that until July 8, the USD/JPY was still rising despite the rate spreads moving lower, creating a considerable divergence.
Now, the 1-month implied correlation index is back over 15. That is why they say the escalator up and the elevator down; things just happen much faster when the deleveraging process starts. But even at 15, this thing is way too low and probably goes higher from here as the seasonal effects of the volatility dispersion trade unwind.is approaching the lower end of the rising wedge pattern, and the 50-day moving average is probably the level to watch for that.
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