USD/CAD grinds higher past 1.3700 as US Dollar bears take a breather ahead of inflation data, Oil recovers – by anilpanchal7 USDCAD Oil RiskAppetite Fed YieldCurve
data while struggling to cheer the latest rebound in the Oil price, Canada’s main export item.crude oil’s slump towards refreshing a three-month low to $72.42, before a rebound to $74.90 at the latest, amid the broad US Dollar weakness due to the reduction in the hawkish Federal Reserve bets. began the week’s trading on a back foot by printing a three-day south-run while declining the most in two months on Monday, licking its wounds near 103.68 at the latest.
US two-year Treasury bond yields marked the biggest daily slump since October 1987 by declining more than 13.0% on a day as US banking regulators rushed to defend the Silicon Valley Bank and the Signature Bank. Further, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields slumped to the monthly low amid a sudden shift in the market’s Fed bets due to the financial market risks emanating from the stated banks.
While portraying the latest shift in the US Fed Fund Futures, Reuters said that the US rate futures on Monday have priced in a 69% chance of a 25-bps hike at next week's Fed policy meeting, with a more than 30% probability of a pause. The market last week was poised for a 50-bps increase prior to the SVB collapse.
Looking ahead, the US inflation data for February will be important to watch for clear directions. Forecasts suggest the US CPI is likely to ease to 6.0% YoY versus 6.4% prior while CPI ex Food & Energy may slide to 5.5% YoY from 5.6% prior.US Inflation Preview: Five scenarios for trading the Core CPI whipsaw within the SVB stormA daily closing below a one-month-old ascending support line, around 1.
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