The Russian army has lost no less than15,000 KIA since Russia widened its war on Ukraine on the night of Feb. 24. Worse for Moscow, the possible death toll—which is impossible to verify—belies much greater losses from wounds and fatigue.
To be clear, both sides are hurting. Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelesnky this weekend uttered the first official statement on the Ukrainian armed forces’ casualty rate when, following a meeting with his Polish counterpart, he defended a law that bars Ukrainian men of fighting age from leaving the country.
Of course, Ukraine is a smaller country than Russian is, with just 44 million people versus Russia’s 144 million. In theory, Russia can absorb more losses. This month the Kremlin concentrated its best remaining forces along one narrow front—in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian troops still cling to two small cities on the far side of the Donets River: Lyman in the northern part of the sector andThe handful of Ukrainian brigades in that pocket, together with thousands of troops, have been falling back underSeverodonetsk. The former could fall any day now.
Morale could become a problem. Not just in the Russian army’s rank and file, but along the home front, too. “The Russian public has, in the past, proven sensitive to casualties suffered during wars of choice,” the U.K. Defense Ministry explained. “As casualties suffered in Ukraine continue to rise they will become more apparent, and public dissatisfaction with the war and a willingness to voice it may grow.
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