Howie Hoops makes his ATS bet for the national title game.
Then, the books slapped their biggest Huskies tax yet, offering a spread that is about twice as high as it should be.
You understand why. All action would back the defending champs if the line was much smaller. UConn is undoubtedly the best team in the country, but there were two teams on its level this season. Houston’s season was cut short because of an injury to Jamal Shead in the Sweet 16. Purdue made it to the title game with the sport’s best inside-out combination, capable of feeding the country’s best player to 17 points below its season-average in the Sweet 16.
Since 1983, national title game underdogs of 6.5-points or more are 4-4 outright, giving value to a Purdue moneyline play. A less-equipped Alabama team played UConn to a draw for roughly 29 minutes in the semifinals. But the Tide made the mistake of playing too fast — decreasing its margin for error with increased possessions — with its subpar defense allowing far too many open looks.. It will play to its pace. It will take whatever the defense offers. It won’t be bullied inside.
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