They found he leads in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia, two states he lost in 2020.
This combination of photos shows Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, left, and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris during an ABC News presidential debate at the National Constitution Center, Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024, in Philadelphia.
But Arizona, which Biden won by just over 10,400 votes in 2020, now presents a challenge for the Harris campaign. Trump is ahead, 50% to 45%, the poll found. A Times/Siena poll there in August found Harris leading by 5 percentage points. Latino voters, in particular, appear to have moved away from Harris, though a significant number — 10% — said they were now undecided.
In one striking finding, nearly four years after Trump was impeached by the House for “incitement of insurrection” for his role in the rioting of Jan. 6, 2021, at the U.S. Capitol, respondents were evenly divided over the question over whether Trump or Harris would do a better job handling democracy.
For many undecided and persuadable voters, character was a pressing concern, and that could be a challenge for Trump. Around a third of these voters said they had concerns about Trump’s personality and behavior, with another 9% expressing concerns about his honesty and ethics. About 7% of voters who were undecided or said they could still change their mind voiced concerns about Trump as a potential threat to democracy.
Notwithstanding Trump’s relative strengths, the polls paint a portrait of voters across these three battleground states as leaning toward more liberal policies and positions on some of the most contentious issues of the day. Two-thirds of voters in the states said they would like abortion to be always or mostly legal.
Abortion — an issue Harris has focused on, assailing Trump for appointing Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade, eliminating the constitutional right to abortion and leading to bans or restrictions in 22 states — was cited as the top issue by fewer voters. But with less than two months to go until Election Day, Harris has shown mixed success in selling her candidacy, at least in these three states. And the jubilant scenes from her rallies are not translating to some voters, who remain unpersuaded and unhappy. In one sign of that, women and young voters, who historically have supported Democratic candidates, are divided over whether Trump’s policies or Harris’ policies would be better for them.
“His policies hurt people like me because his interests are basically self-centered, very extreme,” said Bell, who said she voted for Biden in 2020 and would support Harris this time. “He believes in conspiracy theories. He believes in spreading misinformation.” Both candidates are viewed more negatively than positively in the three states, but Harris’ favorability rating has fallen slightly since August, to 46% from 49%, while Trump’s popularity has remained relatively stable at about 47%.
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