Market Overview Analysis by James Picerno covering: . Read James Picerno's latest article on Investing.com
The estimate is based on the median estimate for a set of projections compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Today’s revised median nowcast indicates output rising 1.9% in Q2, up from Q1’s sluggish 1.4% advance.
Yesterday’s June report for the Chicago Fed National Activity Index also suggested that the economy is stabilizing, albeit at a modest pace. In particular, CFNAI’s 3-month average rose to -0.01, the strongest reading since Oct. 2022 and a reflection of economic activity that’s expanding close to its historical trend .
It follows, then, that recession risk for the US remains low. Although some analysts in recent months have been warning that the threat of an NBER-defined downturn has increased, a suite of analytics published in the weekly updates of The US Business Cycle Risk Report have consistently advised that the broad macro trend’s recent slowdown has been stabilizing and that recession risk remained low.
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