Market Overview Analysis by Matthew Weller covering: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, XAU/USD. Read Matthew Weller's latest article on Investing.com
Love it or hate it, the 2024 US Presidential Election will only continue to get more media coverage from here. In an effort to head off the inevitable efforts to tie election results to market performance, we’ve analyzed the last 10 US Presidential elections, 40 years’ worth of data, and the price action of five key markets:
Regardless of your preferred approach, a thorough, historically informed perspective of the potential impact of US elections on markets will help you better prepare for and plan around situations when the political stakes are high.has not shown a consistent trend of strengthening or weakening in one month before, one week after, one month after, or one quarter after US Presidential Election days over the last 10 elections.
Turning our attention to gold, we can see that the yellow metal has generally weakened both before and after US Presidential elections, albeit with notable exceptions. To my eye, the most interesting tidbit from the table below is that, barring the onset of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, Gold has fallen in the 3 months after a US Presidential Election eight out of nine times, with the only positive return coming in at a paltry +0.2% gain in 2004/2005:5.
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