Heard on the Street: The scope for error is huge in forecasting U.S. inflation, even if you think you know how the pandemic will progress
It is tempting to wave away what is happening with inflation as “pandemic-related,” and therefore bound to pass. But doing so would somehow miss the point. Isn’t everything pandemic-related these days? And is the pandemic something we can wave away?putting them 5.4% above their year-earlier level
Food and energy prices have been pushed up by supply problems and shifts in demand brought on by the pandemic, but so have a lot of other things. The combination of theand the need many people felt for getting a new set of wheels has led to a dearth of vehicles on dealer lots. The result: New-car prices were up 8.7% from a year earlier in September, and used-car prices were up 24.4%.were up 9.6% on the year, furniture prices were up 11.2% and sporting-goods prices were up 7.5%.
It is easy to envision a scenario in which inflation cools substantially in the year ahead. Covid-19 cases fall globally, supply-chain problems get ironed out, demand becomes easier to meet and, poof, prices stop rising so much. It is a reasonable scenario, and what the Federal Reserve and most economists expect.
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