10-year Treasury yield breaks below an uptrend line about 1 year after the Fed started raising rates, just like what happened 30 years ago
A chart of the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield suggests the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are finally having an effect on the bond market’s perception of inflation and economic growth.
The 10-year yield TMUBMUSD10Y slipped last week below a key uptrend line, that’s been rising since the Fed’s first rate increase of the current cycle in March 2022, to combat a surge in inflation. The yield’s peak above 4.2% in October 2022 is the first top, and the early-March top just above 3.7% marks the second top. With the yield falling Friday below the January trough of 3.375%, which was the low between the two tops, the failure is confirmed, the reversal pattern in completed.
He said a close below support will trigger a “bigger sell signal” that will target the 2.80%-to-3.00% zone.
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