The Turkish economy is in pressing need of reform and repair

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The Turkish economy is in pressing need of reform and repair
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Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, believes that the remedy for inflation is to make money cheaper. Over the past year he has put his theory to the test

years ago Mehmet Arslan, an architect in his late 30s, and his wife Mediha could afford to buy a flat in Istanbul. No longer. Mr Arslan’s salary rose by 30% in the past year, but inflation has been at least twice that. House prices have soared by even more, the result of higher construction costs, a low housing stock, and a spike in demand, mostly from Turks hoping to protect their savings from inflation.

Some money comes in under the counter. In the first eight months of 2022, “errors and omissions” in the central bank’s accounts hit a surplus of $28bn. Much of that is believed to be gold and dollars from Russians who have fled to escape conscription and Western sanctions. Turkey has used foreign reserves to support the lira, a policy economists liken to selling the family silver. The bank is thought to have sold at least $100bn of reserves last year.

With credit no longer as readily available, Mr Erdogan has turned to spending to pep up the economy before the election. He has some headroom: at 40% ofcountries. The government has offered early retirement to 2.3m workers, pledged 600bn lira for energy subsidies, and promised to build 500,000 new homes in five years. This month it raised the minimum wage by 55% and the pay of civil servants by 30%.

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