The (Not Always) Sweet Science of World Cup Penalty Kicks

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The (Not Always) Sweet Science of World Cup Penalty Kicks
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As the World Cup group stage gives way to knockout games in Qatar, PK shootouts will inevitably become a factor. For those who prepare accordingly, there are proven ways to gain an edge, writes benlyt

You think fate-deciding shootouts come down to dumb luck? Think again. In Qatar, there'll be mental games aplenty. And the data says that teams would be foolish to come unprepared.The penalty kick is soccer in its purest form: a ball, a goal, a kicker and a goalkeeper. You’d think that any player talented enough to represent their national team would be able to score from 12 yards.

Two years earlier, I had been four minutes away from helping to determine the outcome of a World Cup final. It was 2010, and I was part of a team, along withauthors Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski, and London School of Economics professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, that put together a dossier on penalty kicks for the Netherlands ahead of the final against Spain in South Africa.

This might have been the reason for one of England’s most famous shootout disasters, in the 2006 World Cup against Portugal. Even after Wayne Rooney was sent off early in the second half, Portugal was still happy to play for PKs. Sure enough, England had three out of four penalties saved and lost the shootout 3–1.

England also focused heavily on its players’ body language. When midfielder Jordan Henderson was the first to miss a penalty in the inevitable shootout in the round of 16 against Colombia, he did not physically crumble like Stielike. Instead, he walked back to his teammates with his head held high. England goalkeeper Jordan Pickford was the first player to hand the ball to his own team’s penalty taker, giving him a friendly start to his pre-kick routine.

Examples of keepers working opponents’ minds are plentiful: There’s Argentina’s trash-talking Emiliano Martínez, who told Colombian kicker Yerry Mina that he knew exactly where he was going to kick it—and then made the save—on the way to winning the 2021 Copa América. There’s Brest’s Gautier Larsonneur, of France, who stood off to the right of his goal to psyche out Neymar in a 2021 Ligue 1 match, with the Brazilian star missing the target entirely.

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